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Twelve years ago, when the hustings of parliamentary elections were going
on in Iran, the same ideas were coming out of authoritarian media in Iran
and some Western pragmatists that we hear today: that if the "pragmatists"
(read it "authoritarians") win the election they may be willing to give up
support for Palestinian groups (this time they add "give up al-Qaeda
captives") and opposition to the US in pursuit of an end to tensions
between Iran and the West (this time, they add "an end to sanctions"). It
was said that they might also be willing to clip the wings of hardliners
in pursuit of limited economic reform (hence less political pluralism),
and to loosen social restrictions as a way of buying political
acquiescence from Iranians. Those dreams did not realize.
Most of those hardliners whose wings were clipped are now in the camp of
reformists. A new generation of hardliners is organized by all appointed
bodies of government under the auspices of a brutal king-jurist
(unaccountable, over-the-law, over any oversight, with special rights and
privileges). This generation is more brutal and more violent than the
first generation of revolutionaries, without any revolutionary background.
They do not have any ideals; they are mere mercenaries of ruling clerics
who kill, hit, torture, and have shows in the streets. Rafsanjani and his
clan filled their pockets with billions of dollars, killed hundreds of
intellectuals and political activists in home and abroad, thousand of
books were behind the doors of censorship, no independent press could get
the license to be published, the inflation rates went up to two digit
numbers (one year, 58 percent)- declared by the state- and Khamenei's
crony found the opportunity to strengthen their power in the military,
intelligence, police and judiciary. Reform movement was a response to all
these pressures and oppressions and violations of people's civil,
constitutional and human rights.
No one can imagine a tiny better future with Iranian parliament in the
hands of authoritarians who have only a constituency of about 10 percent
of the population. The problem of dual sovereignty or in another word dual
governance will not be solved by violation of people's political and
cultural rights, while the whole society is divided, not to 50/50 percent,
but to 90/10 percent fractions. As more young people confront with
unemployment and socio-cultural restrictions, the minority percentage is
shrinking more and more.
These are the consequences of a parliament (and then the executive power;
post-Khatami) in the hands of authoritarians:
1. The governmental caste will be more benefited from rents and
privileges;
2. The young people will be more frustrated and hence more radicalized:
less rational political actions and more street politics that
authoritarian love to oppress.
3. Khamenei will need to organize more thugs and hoodlums to suppress any
dissidence and possible insurgencies. The number of members of Ansaar-e
Hezbollah will double or triple (now it is about 20-30 thousands all over
the country);
4. Authoritarians will play the same game of shaking the hands of Western
diplomats with one hand and supporting any violent actions against them
with the other in the region;
5. More political activists and intellectuals in prison, more execution
verdict for people like Aghajari and closing of more independent media;
6. More killing in labor and ghetto riots; authoritarians are very good at
shooting at people engaged in peaceful demonstration; they usually
instigate gatherings to become violent because they only know how to beat
and use their knives and guns (as a very recent case; four workers were
killed in Shahr-e Babak, Kerman province last week);
7. More corruption in oil deals: there will be no one in the parliament to
complain;
8. More exclusion in filling governmental and public positions;
9. More underground and behind the curtain killing of journalists and
activists; if there was no reformist in the government no one would know
about the way Zahra Kazemi was killed.
I can continue to write a list of hundreds of unwilling consequences.
